The Week Ahead: Mens Australian Open Preview
Posted by Brodie under: Australian Open, The Week Ahead
Official Site: Here
Official Draw: Here
Women’s Draw Preview: Here
Top Seeds: Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray, Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Fish
While Djokovic dominated the season last year, things are a bit different entering 2011. Despite being better than Nadal for the first half of the year, it was difficult to call a favourite heading into the US Open. This time, Djokovic is the clear favourite. This time, he’s not only the number 1 in the world, he has to defend his slam title, and the only one he’s won twice.
The good news for him is that his draw is absolutely fantastic. Perhaps the only major threat could come in the fourth round versus Raonic or Roddick. He’s likely to get Ferrer in the quarterfinal, which is the perfect fit for him considering the 5-8 seeds. Ferrer needs to run and grind down his opponents, something he won’t be able to do against a well rested and confident Novak.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Djokovic vs. Ferrer
This quarter has perhaps the most intriguing quarterfinal match-up of Murray/Tsonga. Tsonga has finally gotten himself healthy and is playing an incredibly aggressive and athletic brand of tennis that can really challenge the top 4. However, Murray does well with overpowering players and is perfectly happy to redirect the pace back at his opponents and come up with the necessary angles.
There are some tricky early tests for Murray, including Harrison and anyone out of Troicki, Llodra or Gulbis. Otherwise, a straight forward road for these two to clash in the quarters.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Murray vs. Tsonga
This quarter comes with the most questions. A Fish/Federer quarterfinal is less than guaranteed with players like Melzer, Verdasco, Tomic and most importantly del Potro looming.
Perhaps the only two large threats to Fed are Dolgopolov, who showed flashes of brilliance last year, and Melzer, seeded at the 31 spot due to injury. One of these may test Fed, but pencil him in for the quarters one more time.
The top half of the quarter is a bit more tricky with Delpo opposite Fish. Del Potro steadily improved last year after his return and is not back to top form… or is he? Some time off, some training and a fresh outlook can do wonders. Delpo is no longer the comeback, feel good story and will likely feel like he’s out to prove himself and make that jump back into the top 10 and the ATP’s elite. His underrated defense and return of serve in a five set match gives him the edge in my book.
Predicted Quarterfinal: del Potro vs. Federer
Lastly we come to the quarter of Mr. Number 2, Rafael Nadal. While his results in Abu Dhabi and Doha may imply that Rafa is not ready to reclaim tennis’ top spot or the Australian title, anyone who saw him play can tell you that the flame is burning. And it’s burnin’ high.
Were there brain farts? Yes. Were there adjustments, point construction, and improvement? Absolutely. In particular, Rafa’s backhand impressed as did his movement around the court. There was just that little edge that we come to expect from Rafa. He looks much more relaxed off the court, and most importantly, he knows he needs to be better. And so the hunted becomes the hunter.
On the other side of the coin is what could be a tricky quarter for Berdych. His form right now is anyone’s guess, but he’ll have the oppurtunity to work his way into the tournament. That being said, he has been known to stumble, and a possible showdown versus a hot Almagro and a semi-hometown favourite Baghdatis may be a tough ask.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Almagro vs. Nadal
Predicted Semifinals: Djokovic vs. Murray, Federer vs. Nadal
Predicted Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Predicted Champion: Novak Djokovic