It’s been a long time coming. Hit me.

What It Means For Rafa

Only one man has won more Roland Garros titles than Rafa: Bjorn Borg. Even though Rafa could retire today and be considered the greatest clay player of all time, it’s a record very much worth drawing even with. Not only will it bump him to double digits in the slams category, it will cement the fact that even though he played during the time of the GOAT, he was indestructible at his major in Paris.

What It Means For Fed

Clay has long been Roger’s worst surface, and has only ever managed 2 wins over Rafa on the dirt. He faced him 4 straight years from 2005-08 and managed to take 3 sets total, and only 4 games in the final in 2008.

Outside of the most weeks at number 1, defeating the King of Clay on his clay major has really been the only notable thing Fed hasn’t done. A win would not only give Fed that precious Roland Garros final win over Rafa, it would give him a legitimate shot at number 1 going into the end of the year, and ultimately show that even late in his career, is not a force to be underestimated.

Keys To The Match For Rafa

Rafa’s best opponent this fortnight has not been John Isner, but in fact himself. Mentally he’s looked unstable, the forehand hasn’t always been on, and he’s had some extremely slow starts to matches. That being said, he played the best he has all tournament against Cap’n Crunch in the semifinal, and looked more like the Rafa we know.

In other words, Rafa doesn’t need to “try” to do much of anything spectacular. He knows how to play Fed, and he sure knows how to play Fed on clay. Exploiting the backhand in forehand-backhand rallies, going down the line with the forehand, serving out wide to the Fed backhand, the list goes on. Mentally, however, he’s going to be as solid as he’s ever been. Fed is going to come at him with everything he’s got, and he needs to be prepared for a grind. Which I fully expect him to be.

Otherwise, he needs his backhand to be solid. It doesn’t need to be amazing, but good enough. It’s been a weak point at times this week, either slow, or on the back foot, and it’s ended points too early for him.

Keys To The Match For Fed

Simply put, Fed is going to have to do everything he did against Nole and then some. Not difficult, right? Fed’s backhand, both this tournament and this year, has been pretty average. Against Nole, it looked a lot more like a typical Fed shot. However, Nole really tried to exploit it, but his backhand wasn’t up to snuff. This meant that Fed actually got the advantage in backhand to backhand rallies because the ball wasn’t coming in too deep, or too quickly.

Now that backhand has to hold up to Rafa’s forehand. Fed needs to continue his great footwork, try to run around to the forehand, and stay aggressive. Along with the backhand, his serve was fantastic against Nole, and he’s going to need that for some free(r) points on serve.

Mentally, he looks ready and aggressive. The Fed we’re used to seeing. He’s going to need every ounce of that, and worry about things on his side of the net for the first set, and not let Rafa get in his head. He also needs to convert break points, and hold in games after wasted ones. But you don’t need me to tell you that.

If Rafa shows up, I really think he should be ok, but I think we’re in for a much closer ride than the last time these two met in this tournament.