For the third year straight, Rafa and Fed will tee off in Madrid. The difference this year is that it will be in the semis, not the final.

It’s been a long, tough path for Fed who barely survived Feli and had his hands much more full with Sod than the scoreline would suggest. To be honest, I’m having a tricky time figuring out if Fed’s level of play is down, or more that it’s clay, and he’s running into good opponents. I think it’s definitely true that Fed isn’t trying to be super creative out there and is sticking too his strengths (particularly the forehand and even the serve) and I think that’s the right move.

Rafa is obviously the favourite tomorrow, but I’d hesitate to count Fed out so quickly. The courts are playing incredibly quickly, and Fed has found ways to end points quickly as well as stick in longer rallies. I’m also not entirely convinced by Rafa just yet. He had the odd bump in Monte Carlo and has had a rather straight forward draw this week.

The real question, however, will be whether or not Rafa or Fed can challenge Nole in the final, assuming Novak wins. I’ll preview the final tomorrow night, which should be fantastic. Happy semis watching!