It’s not often we ge
t such a juicy first round match in the ATP, but Del Potro vs Janowicz is certainly that, even if neither seems likely to make a particularly deep run in this tournament. It should be must watch, early round tennis and may just end up as one of the night matches. Sigh, DelPo. This makes us all so sad. He’s already withdrawn.
But of course, this is Novak’s quarter, and he couldn’t have asked for a nicer run to the quarterfinals. As good as Bautista Agut can be, he’s not going to have the weapons to trouble Djokovic.
His likely opponent is Raonic, but sadly Milos may have some very tricky hurdles. Julien Benneteau will put him under pressure, and if he can make it that far, Feli Lopez is a serious problem in the fourth round, as could be Gael Monfils. It’s difficult to call that section, however, and assuming Feli Lopez will make it through his first three matches is probably asking a bit much.
Predicted Quarterfinal – Djokovic vs Raonic
This is a huge tournament for Stan Wawrinka. Stan was so impressive en route to taking this title last season, but fell off rather significantly after and never looked quite as impressive. He has his own quarter, and needs a good result to keep his ranking up where it is.
His first three matches should be straight forward, but beyond that, things get brutal, and quickly. He’s likely to face either Dolgopolov or Pospisil in the fourth round (Fabio “The Fog Machine” Fognini is still terrible on hard courts) and the Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals. Pospisil looked good at Hopman Cup, and played Wawrinka tough in Chennai last year before being forced to retire. That said, I like that Stan should be able to play himself into this tournament.
Things are hardly straight forward for Nishikori, who gets a brutal first round match against Nicolas Almagro. Dodig, Giraldo, and possibly Ferrer is hardly a cake walk, and that’s just to earn a chance to likely play Wawrinka. All of that said, I loved what I saw from Nishikori against Raonic in Brisbane, and he clearly has no problem sustaining a high level over long matches and should grind out any of these names if things get dicey.
Predicted Quarterfinal – Wawrinka vs Nishikori
Let’s be honest – this quarter is going to be an absolute mess. In theory, it belongs to Rafael Nadal, who would be slated to meet Berdych in the quarterfinals. The chance of either of them making it that far feels low, and Nadal gets a seriously difficult first round opponent in Mikhail Youzhny. The Youz isn’t a problem for Nadal in theory, but his health and overall level remains a serious question. Looming in the third round? Lukas Rosol. Ouch.
Flying around in Berdych’s section are a whole bunch of wild names. Gulbis/Kokkinakis itself is a first round match. Tomic. Kohlschreiber. We’ve seen entire quarters implode in the WTA, and I think we need to start getting used to the idea of that in the ATP. My first two quarter predictions were boring, this one? Not so much.
Predicted Quarterfinal – Kohlschreiber vs. Anderson
At first glance, a quarter containing Roger Federer and odd-man-outside-of-the-top-4 Andy Murray should be a fun one. That quarterfinal certainly would be, but there isn’t much else here that gets the blood pumping. I would love to see a Federer and Robredo fourth round match, after Robredo took out Federer in the 2013 US Open. Outside of Nick Kyrgios, this section is Kyrgios-ly boring. I certainly don’t mind his chances of making the fourth round, too.
The top half of this quarter is pretty similar. Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov are the massive favourites to play in the fourth round, though I do like Martin Klizan, and he could give Murray a bit of a push.
I like this section for Dimitrov a lot. Dimitrov remarkably tossed Murray from Wimbledon in straight sets last year, but he also squeaked out a fantastic semifinal win against him in Mexico which was on courts pretty similar to Australia. His early round matches should be straight forward, and I think he is a real threat in this section.
Predicted Quarterfinal – Dimitrov vs Federer
Predicted Semifinals – Djokovic vs Nishikori, Kohlschreiber (how did this happen?) vs Dimitrov
Predicted Final – Djokovic vs Dimitrov
Predicted Champion – Djokovic